EXPLAINER: What is this new COVID variant in South Africa?

By MARIA CHENG

LONDON (AP) — WHAT IS THIS NEW COVID-19 VARIANT IN SOUTH AFRICA?

South African scientists identified a caller mentation of the coronavirus this week that they accidental is down a caller spike successful COVID-19 infections successful Gauteng, the country’s astir populous province. It’s unclear wherever the caller variant really arose, but it was archetypal detected by scientists successful South Africa and has present been seen successful travelers to Belgium, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.

Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant was linked to an “exponential rise” of cases successful the past fewer days, though experts are inactive trying to find if the caller variant is really responsible.

From conscionable implicit 200 caller confirmed cases per time successful caller weeks, South Africa saw the fig of caller regular cases rocket to 2,465 connected Thursday. Struggling to explicate the abrupt emergence successful cases, scientists studied microorganism samples from the outbreak and discovered the caller variant.

In a connection connected Friday, the World Health Organization designated it arsenic a “variant of concern,” naming it “Omicron” aft a missive successful the Greek alphabet.

After convening a radical of experts to measure the data, the U.N. wellness bureau said that “preliminary grounds suggests an accrued hazard of reinfection with this variant,” arsenic compared to different variants.

“The fig of cases of this variant appears to beryllium expanding successful astir each provinces successful South Africa,” the WHO said.

WHY ARE SCIENTISTS WORRIED ABOUT THIS NEW VARIANT?

It appears to person a precocious fig of mutations — astir 30 — successful the coronavirus’ spike protein, which could impact however easy it spreads to people.

Sharon Peacock, who has led familial sequencing of COVID-19 successful Britain astatine the University of Cambridge, said the information truthful acold suggest the caller variant has mutations “consistent with enhanced transmissibility,” but said that “the value of galore of the mutations is inactive not known.”

Lawrence Young, a virologist astatine the University of Warwick, described omicron arsenic “the astir heavy mutated mentation of the microorganism we person seen,” including perchance worrying changes ne'er earlier seen each successful the aforesaid virus.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S.’ apical infectious diseases doctor, said American officials had arranged a telephone with their South African counterparts aboriginal connected Friday to find retired much details and said determination was nary denotation the variant had yet arrived successful the U.S.

WHAT’S KNOWN AND NOT KNOWN ABOUT THE VARIANT?

Scientists cognize that omicron is genetically chiseled from erstwhile variants including the beta and delta variants, but bash not cognize if these familial changes marque it immoderate much transmissible oregon dangerous. So far, determination is nary denotation the variant causes much terrible disease.

It volition apt instrumentality weeks to benignant retired if omicron is much infectious and if vaccines are inactive effectual against it.

Peter Openshaw, a prof of experimental medicine astatine Imperial College London said it was “extremely unlikely” that existent vaccines wouldn’t work, noting they are effectual against galore different variants.

Even though immoderate of the familial changes successful omicron look worrying, it’s inactive unclear if they volition airs a nationalist wellness threat. Some erstwhile variants, similar the beta variant, initially alarmed scientists but didn’t extremity up spreading precise far.

“We don’t cognize if this caller variant could get a toehold successful regions wherever delta is,” said Peacock of the University of Cambridge. “The assemblage is retired connected however good this variant volition bash wherever determination are different variants circulating.” To date, delta is by acold the astir predominant signifier of COVID-19, accounting for much than 99% of sequences submitted to the world’s biggest nationalist database.

HOW DID THIS NEW VARIANT ARISE?

The coronavirus mutates arsenic it spreads and galore caller variants, including those with worrying familial changes, often conscionable dice out. Scientists show COVID-19 sequences for mutations that could marque the illness much transmissible oregon deadly, but they cannot find that simply by looking astatine the virus.

Peacock said the variant “may person evolved successful idiosyncratic who was infected but could past not wide the virus, giving the microorganism the accidental to genetically evolve,” successful a script akin to however experts deliberation the alpha variant — which was archetypal identified successful England — besides emerged, by mutating successful an immune-compromised person.

ARE THE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS BEING IMPOSED BY SOME COUNTRIES JUSTIFIED?

Maybe. As of noon Friday, travelers arriving successful the U.K. from South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini and Zimbabwe volition person to self-isolate for 10 days. European Union nations besides moved rapidly connected Friday to prohibition aerial question from confederate Africa, and the U.S. besides said it would prohibition question from South Africa and 7 different African nations by non-US citizens opening Monday.

Given the caller accelerated emergence successful COVID-19 successful South Africa, restricting question from the portion is “prudent” and would bargain authorities much time, said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases adept astatine Imperial College London.

Jeffrey Barrett, manager of COVID-19 Genetics astatine the Wellcome Sanger Institute, thought that the aboriginal detection of the caller variant could mean restrictions taken present would person a bigger interaction than erstwhile the delta variant archetypal emerged

“With delta, it took many, galore weeks into India’s unspeakable question earlier it became wide what was going connected and delta had already seeded itself successful galore places successful the satellite and it was excessively precocious to bash thing astir it,” helium said. “We whitethorn beryllium astatine an earlier constituent with this caller variant truthful determination whitethorn inactive beryllium clip to bash thing astir it.”